It was just over a year ago when I decided that Columbus Crew SC would win the 2015 MLS Cup. Look, I've even got proof. I was on the "Crew SC will be a juggernaut!" train heading into this year, even if I usually forgot to include the "SC" when proselytizing.
Obviously they weren't a juggernaut, and obviously I've wavered from my pick multiple times -- including in the final Pick 'Em of the year, in which (spoiler alert) I've got the Portland Timbers taking Sunday's MLS Cup (4 pm ET; ESPN | WatchESPN | UniMas | TSN | RDS2) by a 3-2 scoreline.
This doesn't mean that I've soured on Columbus to any notable extent. They took a bit longer to get going this year than I'd expected, largely because Emanuel Pogatetz was not the answer in central defense and Hernan Grana was homesick. It took two mid-season signings in those spots to turn this team into something close to what I thought they could be, and now they're the group that's knocked off the league's hottest team (Montreal) and the league's best team (New York) in the last two playoff rounds. Crew SC are who I thought they'd be.
And I think that's what I like most about them. The additions they've made were designed to fit specific roles in an already evolved system. The playoff loss to New England was treated as a learning experience rather than a catastrophe, and when those same defensive shortcomings showed themselves during the regular season and in the first leg against the Impact, they responded with minor recalibrations rather than panic. Gregg Berhalter is a hoopy frood who always knows where his towel is.
Portland have been more confounding to me, and their progress has been anything but linear. A point off the Supporters' Shield in 2013 to a point out of the playoffs in 2014. They've played three pretty distinctly different styles over the last three years, and with one month left to go in this season they were below the red line in the Western Conference.
You could see the talent -- I picked them to make the playoffs at the start of the season, even if my faith that they'd actually do so was seriously tested on the regular -- but it never seemed to fit and 100 percent coalesce into something greater than the sum of its parts.
Then things changed. That brief excursion below the red line forced Caleb Porter into an "it's time to roll the dice" situation, and his adjustment has proved to be season defining: He's brought Darlington Nagbe central, moved Diego Chara to a pure defensive midfield role, and flipped midfield triangle from a 4-2-3-1 into a 4-3-3.
They've gone 6-0-2 in the eight games since, and have looked like the better team on the field for about 80 percent of that time. Sometimes they still make it harder on themselves than they should, and the last 20 minutes against FC Dallas in the Western Conference Championship is a stark reminder of how dangerous it is to move Nagbe out of the middle. But they know who they are now, and are stomping holes into everyone they come up against.
My point? Linear progress is not always necessary to become an elite team. I could see Columbus's path, while Portland's was always opaque. And now they're both here, 90 minutes from hoisting an MLS Cup.
The Trends:
Portland are unbeaten in their last eight overall, and are 5-1-2 in their last eight road games. The only loss was a 2-1 result at Seattle at the end of August, while the wins include a 2-1 victory over Columbus at MAPFRE Stadium in late September. They've also gotten the results they want on the road in the playoffs, beating Vancouver 2-0 in the second leg of their Western Conference Semifinals and squeezing a 2-2 draw out of FC Dallas last week.
Since that loss to Portland, Columbus are 3-0-0 at home, with a 5-0, regular season-ending win over D.C. United followed by a 3-1 (AET) win over the Impact and a 2-0 first leg win over the Red Bulls. That destruction of D.C., by the way, is what gave them the goal differential advantage over the Timbers. A lesser margin, and this game would be played at Providence Park.
Probable Lineups
Portland (4-3-3)
GK:Adam Kwarasey
LB: Jorge Villafana
CB: Liam Ridgewell
CB: Nat Borchers
RB: Alvas Powell
DM: Diego Chara
CM: Darlington Nagbe
AM: Diego Valeri
LW: Rodney Wallace
CF: Fanendo Adi
RW: Lucas Melano
Columbus (4-2-3-1)
GK: Steve Clark
LB: Waylon Francis
CB: Gaston Sauro
CB: Michael Parkhurst
RB: Harrison Afful
DM: Wil Trapp
CM: Tony Tchani
AM: Federico Higuain
LW: Justin Meram
CF: Kei Kamara
RW: Ethan Finlay
What Portland will do: Build premium chances
Throughout most of the season the Timbers were at or near the top of the league in terms of raw shot totals. They took a ton regardless of formation, game state, quality, or positional division of labor.
And they didn't turn a whole lot of them into goals. The Timbers struggled to score throughout most of the season, earning a reputation for direct play in attack and a defensive mindset overall. Obviously the defensive mindset is a good thing, since they led the league in shutouts. But it clearly came at a cost, leading to an attack that was more "opportunistic" than precise.
Then The ChangeTM happened, and here is the telling number: Before Oct. 14, Portland generated 23 "big chances" -- chances that Opta believes should be a goal -- in 31 games, converting 11 of them. Since then they've generated 10 big chances in eight games, and have converted nine of them.
The league average conversion rate on big chances this year was 56 percent, so what the Timbers have done doesn't seem to be sustainable. But it doesn't have to be sustainable, it only has to be applicable for the next 90 (or 120) minutes.
Of note is that a ton of the chances Portland are now creating look like this:
They are not interested in winning the possession battle, and Nagbe is actually creating fewer chances now that he's in central midfield. Instead they're overloading and attacking through the flanks or on the break, and my word is it working.
How to solve it: Avoid turnovers and win the physical battle with Adi
So easy, right? It really is a simple game, and the team that does the simple things well is usually the one that wins.
But Adi manhandled Tim Parker on that goal, and he manhandled Walker Zimmerman on his goal last week, and he dominated guys like Omar Gonzalez and Bobby Burling and Jamison Olave at the end of the regular season. He also got both goals in Portland's win at MAPFRE back in September.
It'll be interesting to see if Berhalter has Afful play tucked in tight on the right, keeping him connected to Parkhurst at all times. This is what he did to good effect against Montreal, effectively shackling Didier Drogba:
What Columbus will do: Pop Chara out of the hole
Crew SC have been really, really good at refusing to let the opposing No. 6 dictate the tempo of the game and where it's played. Partially this is because they are the league's best team at switching the field of play -- nobody in the league hits better long-balls than Trapp and Tchani -- and partially this is because they are almost preternatually patient in the build-up. Their possessions last longer than anybody else's in the league in terms of the amount of clock they burn, and they make those seconds count.
The goal is always to 1) expose the back line, and 2) create final third entries. "Expose the back line" can mean any number of things, but generally speaking what teams aim to do these days is to pull the midfield shield (the No. 6) out of position, then exploit the space that's left behind.
Look at this magnificent sequence against the Red Bulls in leg one, and keep an eye on Dax McCarty:
Columbus have him chasing the play the whole time, and earned two final third entries from two sequences. The first required a desperation tackle on the edge of the box from Felipe, and the second a headed clearance from Ronald Zubar.
Moments later they'd score the series-deciding goal against a clearly exhausted New York team, and at no point did they let McCarty be the one dictating tempo. They played around or through, and dragged RBNY from side to side until the gaps opened.
For Portland, that'll be Chara in the McCarty role and Nagbe in the Felipe role. While Nagbe's been very good defensively since The ChangeTM, I'm sure the Timbers don't want him making tackles on the edge of the area. That's playing with fire.
How to solve it: Steamroll Trapp
I love, and everybody loves, what Trapp brings to the table in terms of reading the game and distributing the ball (his one-time pass to Kamara in the sequence above cuts out four RBNY defenders). He's brilliant.
He's also proved to be physically frail, and every pro I've talked with in the last few days thinks that Portland are going to be able to get Nagbe on the ball centrally and force Trapp to make game-saving defensive plays. Sometimes he makes them, and sometimes this happens:
Neither Nagbe nor Valeri are Michael Bradley when it comes to raw physical power, but there have been moments where Trapp has struggled with speed as well.
If Trapp is struggling, that could force Columbus to bring Higuain deeper and more central to help defensively. And if that's the case, it allows Chara to hold his spot in Zone 14. Butterfly effect FTW.
A few more things to ponder...
7. Somehow I've gone this entire column, and wrote yesterday's Q&A without really delving into the play of Kamara. He's been the league's best center forward this year, and I think he'll have a huge impact on this game with his goalscoring, defense and hold-up play. He gave Borchers and Ridgewell fits the last time these two teams met, and I suspect the same could happen again.
6. Villafana's excellent postseason warrants another mention, and his ability to shut down space in behind is one of the reasons I think Berhalter will flip Finlay and Meram at times in this one.
5. Both of these teams have game-changers off the bench in Maxi Urruti and Cedrick Mabwati. Porter also has the option of bringing Melano off the bench and starting Dairon Asprilla, but I think the Timbers need Melano's field-stretching ability from the first kick in this one.
4. Tchani:
He's been an immovable object, but he's missed some killer passes that he was connecting on during the regular season. There were three or four times last week he could have broken the RBNY series open and didn't manage it.
3. Both teams looked vulnerable defensively last weekend when their opponents shifted to a 4-4-2 and played direct soccer into the box. But at the same time, both teams will create tons of counterattacking chances when facing that kind of lineup and strategy. It really is a pick-your-poison opposition.
2. Clark has struggled to command his area, especially against bigger forwards. Don't be surprised to see Portland test him early in the game with a few crosses.
1. As I said above and in the Pick 'Em, I think Portland win this one by 3-2. They just pose too many problems to solve right now -- if Columbus set up a deep line like they did against the Red Bulls, Adi will destroy them in the 18. If they set up a high line, the Timbers midfield will send runners through on the flanks.
That said, only a damn fool would feel certain trying to call this one (it me). Crew SC didn't get here by accident, and some very smart and somewhat sentient machines peg the home team as the favorites:
See you all Sunday.
